My Emmy Predictions

The Emmy’s are almost here!

I have done my due diligence and binged as many of these shows as possible. Do I get to have an opinion about these things? No! But it’s so much fun to imagine that I do. This year was easier to deal with than others, because I’ve largely kept up with the state of TV this year, unlike in prior ones. The only exception was Better Call Saul, but I’ve officially caught up on that now.

Part of the reason this will be easier than it has been, however, is that we’ve got a lot of first season nominees here, especially in the drama category. Last year’s drama race was extremely limp, leading to a sweep by The Crown (RIP Queen Elizabeth; she will be missed). This year, in contrast, we’ve got a very lively race featuring shows that have received and grown a lot of love. And over in comedy, some recent upstarts threaten the breakaway success of last year’s winner, Ted Lasso.

Unfortunately, my years of predicting that the limited series will be the strongest race for the foreseeable future have failed me. I still think limited series will win out in the long run, but this is a weak field. Don’t get me wrong, The White Lotus is one of my favorite limited series of the past few years, rivaling Mrs. America, but not quite touching Watchmen or I May Destroy You. But the next biggest competition it has is … I guess, Dopesick? Nothing else has quite the strength to challenge The White Lotus, though.

The big narrative around these whole awards is that the “underdogs” generally look mighty strong in their attempts to take down the big players. I could absolutely see the Academy deciding to take this year to deviate from their tradition of honoring past winners and while that makes me sad in some cases (Julia Garner’s chances for Ruth look slim, but her primal scream is the stuff of legends), it’s thrilling to imagine that a new network comedy, like Abbott Elementary, might actually be strong enough to take down Ted Lasso. Of course, campaigning is really what matters most, but the quality across the board (at least in drama in comedy) is generally very strong.

Let’s talk about the world of comedy for a second. Abbott Elementary looks primed to win a lot of love, but may not strike gold at this ceremony. Its nominations may fail to translate into awards, but I think the exposure it is getting from being nominated is a good sign for its chances. Meanwhile, Hacks could also be a big player against a Ted Lasso that doesn’t seem quite as much of a lock as it was last year. Also, Barry is back with a vengeance, so everyone better be on their toes. I will say, I’m a little suspicious of how Sarah Goldberg didn’t get a nomination for this season, given her intense work in “all the sauces,” but there’s still a path for it to win big. But I wouldn’t bet on it. And while The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is still hanging around for, uh, some reason, Only Murders in the Building and What We Do in the Shadows are quirky little pieces that managed to sneak in to the category too.

The performance categories here are going to be tight too. Quinta Brunson is the best bet to unseat Jean Smart, which wouldn’t be a crime, even though I do think that Ms. Smart is giving the greatest performance on TV currently (Ms. Brunson is shockingly close, though). Bill Hader and Jason Sudeikis are going to fight it out, even though I suspect the Academy will defer to Mr. Sudeikis and give Mr. Hader his love in directing and writing (which is a cop out). Hannah Einbinder should win for her seismic work on Hacks, but we shall see how hard Hannah Waddingham’s grip is to break. And the ladies of Abbott Elementary – Sheryl Lee Ralph and Janelle James – could spell trouble for both of them, Ms. Ralph especially. This could be a decisive contest – the show that wins supporting actress very well could go on to win the top prize.

Over in the drama landscape, Squid Game, Severance, and Yellowjackets are all testing their mettle against some stalwarts (Succession, Ozark, and Better Call Saul). Euphoria and Stranger Things are there too, I guess (I just don’t see a way for them to win big – they’re loved for hyper-specific things, names Zendaya and “Running Up That Hill,” respectively). I’m truly unclear on how this race will go. The best bet is to say that Succession’s closest competition is Squid Game, as Ozark’s last season was nowhere near its best (not that its best was all that good …) and Better Call Saul has never been able to make the impact Breaking Bad did at these awards.

At the very least, Succession is tough to beat in nearly every category it’s nominated for: Jeremy Strong gets a lot of love at awards; Matthew Macfadyen is as close to a sure thing as there can be; Sarah Snook looks mighty comfortable; its finale is almost for sure the best script of the year; and its definitely has some of the strongest directing of the year. For the latter three races, there’s definitely a way for the juggernaut to lose it. Rhea Seehorn might have been snubbed enough to land herself an award (not to mention her work in the second half of the season, which, while not up for an award, will have kept voter eyes on her). Ben Stiller’s work on the Severance season finale gives Succession’s great slate a run for their money. And Squid Game could be a wild card too! Anyway, this night is going to be a lot of fun. Don’t expect Succession to run wild.

And so we must end with the absolutely devastating list of miniseries. It’s just … not an exciting list. Was there any buzz about any of these, besides The White Lotus? How the hell did Inventing Anna make its way in there? By default, Dopesick is probably the most competition The White Lotus has, but there’s a snowball’s chance in hell that it wins nearly anything against the strength of Mike Bloom’s outstanding team. I will say that this was a generally weak year for miniseries in general, as Station Eleven was disappointing, though Himesh Patel was a highlight and Scenes from a Marriage, you know, was there to remind people that Marriage Story exists. I’m unclear on how Maid missed out on the overall series category when it got writing and directing nods in addition to Margaret Qualley’s nomination, but I’m not sure I needed it to be in the race anyway (although I would’ve much preferred it to Inventing Anna – I mean really, what the hell).

The supporting actress list here cracks me up, because I remember thinking that all these women should get nominated for their work, but not expecting it to happen. I’ve seen many people complain about how it’s absurd that so many people could be nominated from a single show, but in my opinion, this group is actually pretty representative of the quality of the women in supporting roles in limited series. In addition, everyone in The White Lotus’s cast gets a chance to show off and each and every one of them knocks it out of the park. To me, this is a case where the “crowding out” of other shows is largely justified. Anyway, while I will always be partial to Connie Britton because of Friday Night Lights and Natasha Rothwell’s layered work rocks, Jennifer Coolidge will walk away with this award. And it’s not close.

The leading actor and actress categories are a little out of my wheeelhouse, but Amanda Seyfried is a sure bet. But the men’s side is a complete toss-up. Is this really even a race? Or is it just a bunch of snails running to stand still? Michael Keaton is probably in the best spot, since the Academy has thrown so much love at Dopesick and I’d guess that Andrew Garfield is behind him, almost exclusively off of name recognition alone. He’s a hot commodity these days (for good reason) and is the closest thing to bringing this tepid race to a boil.

I may be really down on the limited series front, but it’s more out of frustration with having an off year. Limited series are the easiest ways for big networks to generate attention. The only problem this year is that HBO made their big-name series last summer and haven’t been putting anything noteworthy up since. Naturally, Hulu tried to step up, but they don’t have nearly the kind of market penetration or draw as HBO or even Netflix. Meanwhile Netflix’s garbage year continues, as the best they can do here is Inventing Anna. Embarrassing.

On the topic of snubs, I think the big shows that are missing here are Reservation Dogs and We Own This City. Maybe Yellowstone, too, although I don’t think that show ever had much of a chance with the Academy. And honestly, I think that’s fine. I would’ve preferred Reservation Dogs to sneak in over Curb Your Enthusiasm, because it’s always better to honor something new and good than old and fine, but that’s the main thing I’m mad about. This was by no means a bad year for TV, but there’s only a handful of shows that have been able to sustain a conversation this year. The limited series category was – point blank – not good this year and the nominees reflect that. Thankfully, the Marvel shows made no splash here. I’d say that largely, this is a fine representation of what’s on TV right now. Ted Lasso is eating up a lot of space that may not be deserved (3 people in both supporting actor and supporting actress? Really?) and Succession coasts by because it’s been a behemoth in the past. I love cousin Greg, but Nicholas Braun had nothing to do this season and Jeremy Strong was – honestly – overexposed. The Emmys need to figure out how to avoid crowding out in cases like this (The White Lotus’s dominance is, as I said a little earlier, a bit different. I truly don’t know what else would’ve filled those spots.).

It’s possible that it’s time to add an ensemble category, with some stipulations that, perhaps, prevent someone nominated for a single award (either lead or supporting) from being nominated with the rest of the ensemble. This proposal would see, say, Jennifer Coolidge getting a supporting actress nomination with maybe Connie Britton and the rest of the women getting grouped into the ensemble category with Steven Zahn and the rest of the cast that wasn’t nominated individually. That way, Jennifer Coolidge gets to be singled out for her truly special work, while the entire ensemble gets recognized for being a really fucking good ensemble. Or over on Ted Lasso, Hannah Waddingham and Brett Goldstein get individual nominations and their ensembles get packaged together. This could really free things up – Hacks, for example, doesn’t have a deep ensemble so probably wouldn’t get a nomination there. Or maybe the Academy can’t determine who on Succession is giving the best performance and just gives a whole glut of them a nomination for Best Ensemble, freeing a lot of categories.

It won’t mean anything to introduce this category without the Academy changing the way it thinks about what is deserving and diversifying its voting base. It’s also possible that the Best Ensemble category should work differently than I’ve outlined here; maybe it should really just follow how SAG does it. In any case, it might provide more space to honor people and shows for the work that they accomplish.

I’ve bolded the shows I think are competitive in each category and marked what I would like to see win with a star.

Outstanding Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary
• *Barry
• Curb Your Enthusiasm
• Hacks
• The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
• Only Murders in the Building
• Ted Lasso
• What We Do in the Shadows

Outstanding Drama Series

• Better Call Saul
• Euphoria
• Ozark
• Severance
• Squid Game
• Stranger Things
• *Succession
• Yellowjackets

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

• Dopesick
• The Dropout
• Inventing Anna
• Pam & Tommy
• *The White Lotus

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

• Donald Glover – “Atlanta”
• *Bill Hader – “Barry”
• Nicholas Hoult – “The Great”
• Steve Martin – “Only Murders in the Building”
• Martin Short – “Only Murders in the Building”
• Jason Sudeikis – “Ted Lasso”

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

• Rachel Brosnahan – “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
• *Quinta Brunson – “Abbott Elementary”
• Kaley Cuoco – “The Flight Attendant”
• Elle Fanning – “The Great”
• Issa Rae – “Insecure”
• Jean Smart – “Hacks”

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

• Jason Bateman – “Ozark”
• *Brian Cox – “Succession”
• Lee Jung-jae – “Squid Game”
• Bob Odenkirk – “Better Call Saul”
• Adam Scott – “Severance”
• Jeremy Strong – “Succession”

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

• Jodie Comer – “Killing Eve”
• Laura Linney – “Ozark”
• Melanie Lynskey – “Yellowjackets”
• Sandra Oh – “Killing Eve”
• Reese Witherspoon – “The Morning Show”
• *Zendaya – “Euphoria”

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series

• Colin Firth – “The Staircase”
• Andrew Garfield – “Under the Banner of Heaven”
• Oscar Isaac – “Scenes from a Marriage”
• Michael Keaton – “Dopesick”
• *Himesh Patel – “Station Eleven”
• Sebastian Stan – “Pam & Tommy”

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series

• Toni Collette – “The Staircase”
• Julia Garner – “Inventing Anna”
• Lily James – “Pam & Tommy”
• Sarah Paulson – “Impeachment: American Crime Story”
• Margaret Qualley – “Maid”
• *Amanda Seyfried – “The Dropout”

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

• *Anthony Carrigan – “Barry”
• Brett Goldstein – “Ted Lasso”
• Toheeb Jimoh – “Ted Lasso”
• Nick Mohammed – “Ted Lasso”
• Tony Shalhoub – “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
• Tyler James Williams – “Abbott Elementary”
• Henry Winkler – “Barry”
• Bowen Yang – “Saturday Night Live”

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

• Alex Borstein – “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
• Hannah Einbinder – “Hacks”
• *Janelle James – “Abbott Elementary”
• Kate McKinnon – “Saturday Night Live”
• Sarah Niles – “Ted Lasso”
• Sheryl Lee Ralph – “Abbott Elementary”
• Juno Temple – “Ted Lasso”
• Hannah Waddingham – “Ted Lasso”

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

• Nicholas Braun – “Succession”
• Billy Crudup – “The Morning Show”
• Kieran Culkin – “Succession”
• Park Hae-soo – “Squid Game”
• *Matthew Macfadyen – “Succession”
• John Turturro – “Severance”
• Christopher Walken – “Severance”
• O Yeong-su – “Squid Game”

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

• Patricia Arquette – “Severance”
• Julia Garner – “Ozark”
• Hoyeon Jung – “Squid Game”
• Christina Ricci – “Yellowjackets”
• Rhea Seehorn – “Better Call Saul”
• J. Smith Cameron – “Succession”
• *Sarah Snook – “Succession”
• Sydney Sweeney – “Euphoria”

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series

• *Murray Bartlett – “The White Lotus”
• Jake Lacy – “The White Lotus”
• Will Poulter – “Dopesick”
• Seth Rogen – “Pam & Tommy”
• Peter Sarsgaard – “Dopesick”
• Michael Stuhlberg – “Dopesick”
• Steve Zahn – “The White Lotus”

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series

• Connie Britton – “The White Lotus”
• *Jennifer Coolidge – “The White Lotus”
• Alexandra Daddario – “The White Lotus”
• Kaitlyn Dever – “Dopesick”
• Natasha Rothwell – “The White Lotus”
• Sydney Sweeney – “The White Lotus”
• Mare Winningham – “Dopesick”

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

• Lucia Aniello – “There Will Be Blood” (“Hacks”)
• Jamie Babbit – “True Crime” (“Only Murders in the Building”)
• Mary Lou Belli – “Baby Daddy Groundhog Day” (“The Ms. Pat Show”)
• Cherien Dabis – “The Boy from 6B” (“Only Murders in the Building”)
• MJ Delaney – “No Weddings and a Funeral” (“Ted Lasso”)
• *Bill Hader – “Barry” (“710N”)
• Hiro Murai – “Atlanta” (“New Jazz”)

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

• Jason Bateman – “Ozark” (“A Hard Way to Go”)
• Hwang Dong-hyuk – “Red Light, Green Light” (“Squid Game”)
• Karyn Kusama – “Yellowjackets” (“Pilot”)
• *Mark Mylod – “Succession” (“All the Bells Say”)
• Lorene Scafaria – “Succession” (“Too Much Birthday”)
• Ben Stiller – “Severance” (“The We We Are”)
• Cathy Yan – “Succession” (“The Disruption”)

Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series

• Francesca Gregorini – “Iron Sisters” (“The Dropout”)
• Michael Showalter – “Green Juice” (“The Dropout”)
• Danny Strong – “The People vs. Purdue Pharma” (“Dopesick”)
• Hiro Murai – “Wheel of Fire” (“Station Eleven”)
• John Wells – “Sky Blue” (“Maid”)
• *Mike White – “The White Lotus”

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

• Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky – “The One, The Only” (“Hacks”)
• Jane Becker – “No Weddings and a Funeral” (“Ted Lasso”)
• *Alec Berg and Bill Hader – “starting now” (“Barry”)
• Duffy Boudreau – “710N” (“Barry”)
• Quinta Brunson – “Pilot” (“Abbott Elementary”)
• Steve Martin and John Hoffman – “True Crime” (“Only Murders in the Building”)
• Sarah Naftalis – “The Casino” (“What We Do in the Shadows”)
• Stefani Robinson – “The Wellness Center” (“What We Do in the Shadows”)

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

• Jesse Armstrong – “All the Bells Say” (“Succession”)
• Hwang Dong-hyuk – “One Lucky Day” (“Squid Game”)
• Dan Erickson – “The We We Are” (“Severance”)
• Jonathan Lisco, Ashley Lyle, and Bart Nickerson – “F Sharp” (“Yellowjackets”)
• Ashley Lyle and Bart Nickerson – “Pilot” (“Yellowjackets”)
• Chris Mundy – “A Hardy Way to Go” (“Ozark”)
• *Thomas Schnauz – “Plan and Execution” (“Better Call Saul”)

Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series

• Sarah Burgess – “Man Handled” (“Impeachment: American Crime Story”)
• Elizabeth Meriwether – “I’m in a Hurry” (“The Dropout”)
• Molly Smith Metzler – “Snaps” (“Maid”)
• Patrick Somerville – “Unbroken Circle” (“Station Eleven”)
• Danny Strong – “The People vs. Purdue Pharma” (“Dopesick”)
• *Mike White – “The White Lotus”